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Don Dodge on The Next Big Thing

Mark Cuban says "The Internet is dead" What he really meant was...

Mark Cuban says "The Internet is dead and boring". It is an attention grabbing headline but what he really means is that Internet bandwidth is not growing fast enough to support new innovative applications. The same could be said for cell phone bandwidth and services, Voice over IP (VoIP), video conferencing, etc. Mark's point is that the Internet's full potential will not be realized until network bandwidth grows on a path like processor speed did according to Moore's Law.

Mark and his partner Todd Wagner founded Broadcast.com back in the 90's, and in 1999 sold it to Yahoo for $5.7 Billion. The idea was to redistribute radio and TV programming over the Internet. The concept was great, and it actually worked. But, the belief at the time was that bandwidth would continue to double every year or so enabling all sorts of innovation. It didn't.

Here is what Mark has to say about Internet bandwidth; "Few people's actual throughput to their homes have increased more than 5mbs in the past 5 years, and few people's throughput (if you don't understand the difference between throughput and the marketed downstream speeds your read from your ISP, you should) to their homes will increase more than 10mbs in the next 5 years. That's not enough to define a platform that allows really smart people to come up with groundbreaking ideas."

Mark Cuban is right, and we see the same problem in the cell phone space. The carriers are dragging their feet, trying to control all the applications, and building "walled gardens" around their users. Just look at all the growth and innovation happening on the cell phone platform in Europe and Asia.

Video conferencing has been around for decades, but it really hasn't taken off in a big way due to bandwidth limitations. Voice over IP (VoIP) is the same story, although we are seeing more of it now that the carriers are involved. Video on Demand works well on cable TV but could open up huge markets on the Internet if there was more bandwidth available.

Cuban's latest venture is HDnet, a high definition TV network sold through cable TV carriers. Mark said in a recent interview; "We have a vertically integrated entertainment company. We make movies; we show them in Landmark theaters; we show them on HDNet; we release them through our own DVD company, Magnolia Home Entertainment, and distribute them through Magnolia Pictures."

Mark Cuban - the next Ted Turner? - Cuban owns the Dallas Mavericks NBA basketball team, is working on a new football venture, and is thinking about buying the Chicago Cubs baseball team. Sports teams create great entertainment content for his vertically integrated entertainment company. Ted Turner did the same thing in building TBS, CNN, TNT, while owning the Atlanta Braves baseball team and Atlanta Hawks basketball team.

Ted Turner bought Hanna/Barbera the Saturday morning cartoon producer for $550M. Ted said other potential buyers saw it only as a library of low budget cartoons that could only be used as re-runs in syndication. But Ted saw Hanna/Barbera as the base content for a new network he would build. He would call it The Cartoon Network and it would go on to make billions for Turner.

Entrepreneurs see things that others don't. At first experts will say it is the dumbest idea they ever heard. But the entrepreneur pushes ahead and makes it happen anyway. Then the experts say, that was simple and obvious...the entrepreneur was just lucky...in the right place at the right time. Entrepreneurs know what I am talking about. It happens all the time.

Published Saturday, August 25, 2007 1:39 PM by Don Dodge

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Tinu said:

It's a shame we don't have the same broadband speeds as our peers in other nations. This speed problem really has the potential to hold us back, when you think about how much our entrepreneurs, big and small, think of solutions for global problems that has some basis in faster speed.

Because it's not that the technology doesn't exist, it's just that, for reasons I'd love someone to explain to me, we're just not allowed to have it. And it's making the US .... techonologically impoverished in comparison to our European and Asian peers.

August 26, 2007 2:31 AM
 

Don Dodge said:

Tinu, I don't know all the reasons why bandwidth is not increasing rapidly, but one reason is that the cost of infrastructure is enormous. The capital costs are huge but the market is so competitive that prices can not be increased proportionally.

The microprocessor industry managed to increase performance while at the same time reducing prices. The Internet infrastructure companies could learn some lessons from Intel and the CPU companies.

August 27, 2007 10:53 PM

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About Don Dodge

I have been in the software business for more than 20 years. I started my software career with Digital Equipment Corp, aka DEC, in the database group. I worked with 5 software start-ups over the next 12 years. Forte Software was the first multiplatform object oriented development environment. AltaVista was the first search engine on the web. Napster was the first P2P file sharing network. Bowstreet was the first web services development environment. Groove Networks was the first secure P2P collaboration platform. Now I am at Microsoft...the biggest start-up in the world... working with VC's and start-ups in the greater Boston area. The goal is to help VC's and start-ups be successful with Microsoft, and together, provide great products for our customers.
Don Dodge
Information Worker Productivity
I have been in the software business for more than 20 years. I started my software career with Digital Equipment Corp, aka DEC, in the database group. I worked with 5 software start-ups over the next 12 years. Forte Software was the first multiplatform object oriented development environment. AltaVista was the first sear...

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