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Don Dodge on The Next Big Thing

Web 2.0 = web app + 2 founders + 0 revenue

I was meeting with a very successful VC firm in Boston today reviewing new companies and ideas. One of the partners asked me to characterize Web 2.0 startups. I said, half jokingly, "I think Web 2.0 stands for a web app, 2 founders and zero revenue." But, they all have an advertising model in mind. Read Techmeme any day and you know what I mean.

The Wall Street Journal has a story today "Investors to Web startups: Where's the advertising?"  The story basically says that VCs are nervous about funding anything other than ad supported consumer applications.

Venture capitalists tend to be fans of ad-driven sites since advertising revenue theoretically covers the cost of giving away a Web service free, and free sites attract users much faster than sites that charge money. Such sites are typically also cheap to run because there is often no need for customer-service agents or costs for physical goods. So such companies can have high profit margins if they succeed. Many of today's hottest Web properties are based on the online-ad model, including Google Inc., which pairs ads with search results, and social-networking site Facebook Inc.

Don't get me wrong, I love Web 2.0 apps, social networks, widgets, and UGC (User Generated Content) sites. I use lots of them everyday. But applying a one-size-fits-all revenue model to these ideas is just wrong.

The first thing to remember is that not all page views and users are created equal. Meaning, some page views like SERPs (Search Engine Result Pages) are very valuable and can be effectively monetized with CPC ads, but other page views are essentially worthless or low margin. Simply counting up page views or unique users doesn't necessarily translate to revenue.

There are lots of other revenue models that can make sense for web based applications and services.

Freemium - The Freemium model, upselling from free to premium services is a good model. Many of the widgets provide a free service with options to buy premium services such as more detailed traffic statistics, more powerful services, enhanced customization, or higher levels of service.

Transactions - Direct selling to your audience, affiliate marketing ala Amazon.com, finders fees, or percentage of sales, are all good models for certain types of services.

Subscriptions - Yes, people will buy subscriptions to software, services, and high quality content. There are some great businesses built on subscribers.

Advertising can be a component of any revenue model that includes a large targeted audience, but it shouldn't be the only path. There are only so many ways to split the advertising budget pie...and the big guys are getting most of it. Web 2.0 entrepreneurs need to think creatively about all the possible revenue streams.

Published Tuesday, August 21, 2007 7:17 PM by Don Dodge

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Tom Summit said:

Tsk, Tsk, Don. And you are attending the TechCoctail in Boston that is organized by some of the Web 2.0 community.  Which half was the joke?  I read your post about the Y Combinator demo day, so will give you the benefit of the doubt in that you were at least looking.

Here is what you need to take heed of  http://newshutch.com/blog/

“How does Microsoft plan to reach out to young web developers building the next big thing when the cost of the Microsoft development stack presents a significant hurdle.” The answer was along the lines of “We’ll offer VisualStudio Express” (i.e. crippleware). Hmm. I’m sure the Microsoft stack is the best product for developing most Windows desktop software, but Microsoft is mostly irrelevant at the leading edge of web development. It’s terrible to lose that leading edge because the young people building hot stuff today will start in the free and open source world and they’ll tend to stay there."

August 23, 2007 1:55 PM

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About Don Dodge

I have been in the software business for more than 20 years. I started my software career with Digital Equipment Corp, aka DEC, in the database group. I worked with 5 software start-ups over the next 12 years. Forte Software was the first multiplatform object oriented development environment. AltaVista was the first search engine on the web. Napster was the first P2P file sharing network. Bowstreet was the first web services development environment. Groove Networks was the first secure P2P collaboration platform. Now I am at Microsoft...the biggest start-up in the world... working with VC's and start-ups in the greater Boston area. The goal is to help VC's and start-ups be successful with Microsoft, and together, provide great products for our customers.
Don Dodge
Information Worker Productivity
I have been in the software business for more than 20 years. I started my software career with Digital Equipment Corp, aka DEC, in the database group. I worked with 5 software start-ups over the next 12 years. Forte Software was the first multiplatform object oriented development environment. AltaVista was the first sear...

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